A view of the skyline of Beijing's CBD area Photo: VCG
Editor's Note:As 2023 draws to a close,888 slot the global economy is still struggling to recover amid myriad challenges. How would the global economy fare in 2024, including inflation, energy crisis, and quarrels on semiconductor chips? Recently, reporters Wang Dong and Qian Jiayin from the Global Times (GT) interviewed globally renowned investor Jim Rogers (Rogers). Rogers revealed that he still holds many Chinese securities and he believed that there would be significant opportunities in China next year.
GT:Would you be willing to disclose which stocks you may buy in 2024? What advice do you have for investors?
Rogers:I know there is a word in Chinese called "wēijī," which means that a disaster and an opportunity are the same thing. Therefore, I still hold many Chinese stocks and continue to seek opportunities for new investments. In my opinion, the entertainment, tourism and aviation industries have been severely affected by the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, but I believe these industries are the ones where opportunities are hidden.
GT:From your perspective, what is China's development potential, particularly concerning tech innovation and the business environment?
Rogers:China has a long history of innovation, predating the birth of the US. It has discovered and created many new things and technologies. Today, there are hundreds of thousands of young people in China who are engaged in innovation. I hope that China will continue to encourage innovation. Compared with the US, China has a larger group of innovative and talented people, and its innovation will only get better.
GT:As someone who has been investing in the Chinese market for over 30 years, how do you gauge its stock market in 2024? What kind of stocks would you like to invest next year? What advice do you have for investors?
Rogers:The Chinese stock market has suffered because of the property bubble in China and because of the various problems that some of the world is having. When the world, including the US, Europe and other regions, faces significant challenges, it inevitably impacts China. As the second-largest economy, China cannot escape the consequences of global issues.
China's stock market has been impacted recently due to the factors mentioned above. However, I believe the market may be approaching its bottom.
By saying this, I don't mean that the market has already hit its bottom, it may still take some time, but the current trend is very close to that point. I have confidence that the situation of the Chinese stock market will improve. Therefore, I expect that the Chinese stock market will continue to experience a downward trend for a period of time and soon reach its bottom, with an improvement expected in the coming months.
GT:This year, China has made some accomplishments in the fields of artificial intelligence and the green renewable energy. What fields of the Chinese economy will show significant vitality in 2024?
Rogers:China produces a large number of engineering experts every year, and I believe that many of them are exceptionally outstanding. This can be verified both in China and globally. With the support of such a vast pool of technological talent, China has the potential to become a global leader in any emerging industry. For example, China has already shown a remarkable performance in the solar photovoltaic industry. I believe that China's artificial intelligence industry also has great prospects.
GT:Do you think the rally of the US stock market will continue next year?
Rogers:In the US, it is a common occurrence for the stock market to perform well in the year before an election, as politicians strive to please the electorate. This pattern has been observed numerous times and is not unique to America. As we approach the end of this year and with the election scheduled for next year, it may become more challenging for politicians to sustain the positive momentum.
The US has engaged in extensive money printing, borrowing and spending, but it is likely that these practices will come to an end, considering the significant efforts made in 2023. Consequently, my optimism for the stock market in 2024 is not as high as it has been in the past.
GT:Western media are keen about China-US tech dispute. We recently saw an article in The Washington Post claiming that a new front has opened in the escalating US-China tech competition. How do you view tech competition between the two countries?
Rogers:I believe that healthy competition between China and the US is beneficial for both countries and the world as a whole. Whether it is in the field of technology or any other area, competition drives innovation and encourages continuous improvement. If one country excels in a certain aspect, it motivates the other to learn and adapt.
This exchange of knowledge and ideas leads to progress and advancements for everyone involved. Therefore, competition should be embraced and encouraged, as it fosters growth and development.
GT:What black swan or gray rhino events do you predict may occur in the global economy in 2024?
Rogers:In my opinion, severe economic issues, as well as more widespread inflation leading to fluctuations in interest rate policies and stock markets, will occur in many countries. The US since 2008-2009 has not experienced a significant recession, making it one of the longest such periods in American history. Therefore, I believe that the US and many other developed countries will face very serious economic problems.
GT:Who do you think could be the "dark horse" in the global economy? Which emerging economies do you favor the most?
Rogers:Looking at the global market, the US stock market is approaching its all-time high, and many other major stock markets are also on the rise. The Chinese stock market, however, is currently in a downward phase.
But I prefer to buy stocks that are falling rather than rising, so I am turning my attention to China. I have also been buying stocks from emerging countries around China, as I believe significant changes are happening there.
In comparison, I find it difficult to find suitable industry stocks in the US market because asset prices there have been consistently high and continue to rise. It is challenging for me to find something that fits my criteria.
GT:What is your prediction for Chinese economy in 2024? What do you think is the most important thing for the economy next year?
Rogers:I believe that China's economy in 2024 will continue to grow and develop. Despite some challenges and uncertainties, China has shown resilience and adaptability in the past. As for the most important task for China's economy next year, I believe it is to accelerate its opening-up.
China has implemented the policy of reform and opening-up for decades, which has been great for both China and the world. Therefore, I hope to see China's doors of openness become wider and wider, as this will benefit both the world and China.
China has been steadily moving toward the yuan's internationalization for years. As a foreign investor, I suggest that the reform of free conversion of the yuan can be accelerated.
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